With Tom Tancredo deciding to retire from Congress after this term, the speculation has begun on who will replace him. Given the solid GOP nature of the district, look for lots of people to give it serious consideration. While many blogs will give you info on the likely candidates, I thought it would be interesting to give some thought to the constituencies that will want to play.
The first thing that stands out is that most will view this race as decided by the primary, so the natural first thought on the GOP side is the Club for Growth. They will view this race as a possible chance to cheaply (by only spending in the primary) add another Clubber to their ranks, as they did last cycle in the 5th CD (interesting side note is does this make it less likely they will play in Lamborn's defense this time). There will be intense competition for their support (read $$$$). Word is that Jonathon Hotaling is a big backer of State Sen. Ted Harvey and his playbook includes club backing as he got for Marilyn Musgrave and Doug Lamborn. However, Bill Armstrong is a big player with Club for Growth nationally and it is hard to see them crossing him, so it could get interesting.
Another part of Jon Hotaling's playbook is to use his brother over at the Colorado Christian Coalition to do some nasty mailers. Over the years, they along with Chuck Gosnell have stacked the board with toadies so you will probably see them up to their old tricks again, but going after the son of Bill Armstrong is fraught with danger, namely Bill's reputation and not inconsiderable money could be used to fight back.
Another factor is the desire of the Douglas County portion of the district to insure their member of Congress comes from Douglas County. It is a sentiment you see in El Paso County, but Douglas does not make up as much of the 6th as El Paso does in the 5th. Can the Douglas folks unite in enough numbers to push a home grown candidate through?
Money is always a factor in these safe seat primaries and this district does have a significant business presence in Northern Douglas, Southern Arapahoe/Jeffco area. Will that business community unite to some degree and get behind one candidate? And if so, who benefits the most? Certainly Will Armstrong has a chance at that support, but depending on who else gets in it could be wide open. The big danger here for locking it up would be if Jane Norton got in. The Southeast Business Partnership will be a popular stopping off spot in the next few months.
Well that is the first of many looks at what will surely be a fascinating 6th CD. Stay tuned.
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A look at the 6th CD, Part 2
There’s a strong feeling inside the the Republican Party that Coffman’s running would really hurt the GOP since the Democrat Gov Ritter will appoint his replacement as SoS. Coffman may not care because the GOP has done him no favors, but the activists are very much against him running. Coffman has hired Phaseline Strategies (Sean Tonner) as a general consultant, which will help with a primary. However, Tonner’s close ties to former Governor Bill Owens won’t help with GOP activists, and CO is a caucus state. On the plus side, Coffman is the only statewide GOP official that won in 2006 in a year that saw the Dems sweep the field in Colorado; he’s an Iraq war vet, having taken a leave of absence from Treasurer to help run elections in Iraq.
There was something strange about that though. Coffman was running for Governor (and stood a good chance of winning) when all of a sudden he bowed out and left for Iraq. Some have assumed that Governor Owens had naked pictures of him with sheep or something: Owens, the story goes, told him to let his boy Bob Beauprez run and if Coffman was a good boy they’d help him run in the future. The Tonner hiring tends to confirm it this story. It won’t help Coffman much with the activists. They’ll look at him as sold out. They’ll wonder if it means Coffman will endorse Owens when Owens tries his political rehabilitation in a run for Senate. The answer is probably yes.
And it will bring the number of political lives ruined by association with Owens to five. Bob Schaffer, Pete Coors, Mark Hillman and Bob Beauprez have all been hurt by Owens. In Schaffer’s case it was because Owens opposed him, but the rest made deals with Owens that killed them politically. If you wonder about the state of Colorado GOP politics you only have to look at the lives ruined by Owens to get the picture of why we are weak. The only way Coffman survives is if he runs unopposed.
As to Will Armstrong, he has not done much in politics and some think Bill Armstrong’s day has come and gone. There’s a considerable portion of voters in Colorado that have no memory of Senator Bill Armstrong. However the Armstrong family does have the money and anyone who can come up with a million bucks or two is a legitimate candidate. But one would have to see how Will does campaigning first before evaluating how legitimate a candidate he is.
Harvey is a first term Senator that just won his seat in 2006. It was the only contested election that he has run in despite being in the legislature for over six years. His numbers were good in the Senate election, but he faced kind of weak opposition in a political newcomer and he benefited from endorsements from Tancredo and House Minority Leader Mike May (who also lives in Douglas County and who appointed Harvey his Asst minority leader during the primary to puff him). Harvey will not have these advantages in a run for Congress. This time he’ll be on his own, kind of.
Harvey’s campaign advisors will be the same Christian rightists that have messed up Congressman Doug Lamborn’s rather bright prospects. This will include the Hotaling brothers. Mutt and Jeff are their names. Lamborn almost lost his primary fight last time around because of some questionable advertising by this group. He may even lose this time around. That’s saying a lot about a sitting congressman, even if a freshman. One political web site opined that you’d almost have to try to raise as little money as Lamborn has in his reelection bid.
The Hotaling’s will run a Harvey campaign that will include fundraising letters sent by semi-fictitious organizations like “Coloradoans Against Gun Control” that will rail against the other candidates who didn’t return surveys saying they were against gun control. For the most part these organizations will be drop-box operations controlled by the Hotaling brothers. Where the money will come from to pay for it is the interesting question. Harvey may have survived this type of thing during a state Senate campaign, but in a congressional race the lights will be much brighter. Harvey will melt. As one political consultant said: “Harvey will try to campaign by saying the other candidates aren’t conservative enough. He’ll try to create daylight between himself and others on issues. The only daylight he’ll expose is the daylight shining out of each of his ears.”
Assuming Wiens runs, he should be the favorite. Although his senate district doesn’t cover all of the 6th Congressional, he’s well-known in the district. He was the GOP nominee for State Treasurer and lost narrowly to Roy Romer. He also lost a narrow congressional race in the general election for a Democrat Western-slope district. He knows how to win GOP primaries. He has more money than any candidate, plus he knows how to raise lots of cash. His rolodex is a Who’s Who of Colorado contributors. He recently raised over $700,000 in a single night for Children’s Hospital by hosting a fundraiser at his picturesque ranch in Sedalia, Colorado. He has no voting record to attack, being a conservative thought leader and right on the issues as far as the GOP is concerned. The only thing they’ll attack is some rather lose allegations about financial improprieties made by folks who mismanaged $5 million for him in 2001, got fired for doing so and then sued him. These folks were hoping Wiens would settle the case, because at the time Wiens was running for State House and they thought it would embarrass him. Wiens told them to stick it. The case was litigated and the courts found in favor of Wiens.
So in this order it’s: Wiens, Coffman, Armstrong, Harvey. Plus one or two like Nancy Spence who think the conservatives will beat each other up and leave the liberal to scoop up the prize.
Hopefully, Dick Wadhams will play traffic cop and make sure there are no great big pile ups amongst the candiadtes.